Bhubaneswar: A low pressure area is likely to form over southeast Bay of Bengal by April 6 with chances of west-northwestwards movement.
As per the ‘North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook’ issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), most of the models including IMD GFS, GEFS, NCUM, NEPS and ECMWF etc. have indicated the likely development of cyclonic circulation/ low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal during the later half of week 1 (31.03.2022-06.04.2022).
The forecasted system might move west-northwestwards during the first half of week 2 (07.04.2022-13.04.2022).
A continuous watch is being maintained over the region by the IMD.
This basin remains active and may possibly churn another storm during the first half of April, said Skymet Weather Services.
Climatologically, during the period 1891-2020, there have been 44 cyclonic disturbances over the North Indian Ocean, including 8 over Arabian Sea and 36 over Bay of Bengal.
Out of the eight cyclonic disturbances over Arabian Sea, 2 intensified into cyclonic storm and four into super cyclonic storm. Similarly, out of the 44 cyclonic disturbances over the Bay of Bengal, 13 intensified into cyclonic storm and 15 into super cyclonic storm.
On the other hand, the IMD GFS model (based on 00 UTC of April 2, 2022) graphically indicates the presence of a system over the Bay of Bengal and its approach towards the coast of India during the first half of this month (see pics below).