Jammu and Kashmir is forecast to receive pre-winter moderate rainfall or snow next week, according to forecasts released by the weather office on Thursday. The Meteorological Department predicts dry weather through October 17.
On Thursday, the Meteorological Department (MeT) in Srinagar said that most of Jammu and Kashmir was clear or partly cloudy.
According to Sonam Lotus, director of MeT, the forecast calls for dry weather through Monday, October 17th.
Although mainly dry weather is predicted up until October 17th, “light to moderate rain or snowfall (over higher reaches) is very likely during October 18–20th in J&K with main activity on the 19th of October with a 60–70% chance of precipitation,” said Lotus.
On Monday and Tuesday, light rain fell in some areas of J&K and snow fell in the higher elevations of south Kashmir.
Over the past few days, the weather service has observed cooler-than-average daytime highs. The mercury at the popular ski resort of Gulmarg in north Kashmir dropped by 4.3 degrees Celsius during the day on Wednesday, settling at 11 degrees Celsius before dropping to 2.5 degrees Celsius overnight. Pahalgam, a popular tourist destination in south Kashmir, saw temperatures as high as 17.4 degrees Celsius on Wednesday and as low as 2.7 degrees Celsius the night after.
The summer capital, Srinagar, had a high of 22.8 degrees Celsius during the day and a low of 7.8 degrees Celsius during the night.
Meteorologist Muhammad Hussain Mir says that a western disturbance will cause a weather system to hit the area on October 18 and 19.
The Kashmir valley will bear the brunt of its effects. It won’t rain a lot, “he said.
Kashmir’s autumn, known as Harud, begins in the last week of September, while the bleakest 40 days of winter, known as Chilai Kalan, begin on December 21.
After two years of below-average monsoon seasons, Jammu and Kashmir has received normal rainfall this year, according to officials. From June 1st to September 29th, they reported an average rainfall of 270 mm in the Kashmir valley, which is 6% higher than the average rainfall of 254 mm. In the four monsoon months, the amount of rain was 7% higher than the average of 826mm. This was true all over the Jammu division.
Seventy percent of Kashmir’s precipitation comes from western disturbances, or moisture-laden winds from the Mediterranean; these are the months of January and February, when snow falls; and March and April, when the rain totals exceed one hundred millimetres in both cases.
Temperatures in the valley this year were 8-10 degrees above normal in March and April, causing hardship for locals.