Bhubaneswar: In June, below normal monthly rainfall is expected over most parts of the country except some areas of south peninsular India, northwest India, extreme north India and some isolated pockets of northeast India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its Updated Long Range Forecast Outlook for the 2023 Southwest Monsoon Season (June-September).
However, southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal [96 to 104% of Long Period Average (LPA)]. The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm, the IMD said.
Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 96% of the LPA with a model error of ± 4%.
Region wise, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall is most likely to be below normal over Northwest India (<92% of LPA) and normal over other three broad homogeneous regions; central India (94-106% of LPA), Northeast India (94-106% of LPA) and South Peninsular India (94-106% of LPA).
The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country is most likely to be Normal (94-106% of LPA).
In respect of spatial distribution of the monsoon seasonal rainfall, normal to above normal rainfall is likely over the most areas of south peninsular India, some areas of east central India and many areas of northeast and extreme north India. However, normal to below normal rainfall is likely over many areas of northwest India and adjoining west central India, northern parts of the peninsular India and along the foothills of Himalayas.
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